Published on October 17th, 2015 | by John Locke0
PUTIN YOU IN HIS SIGHTS
CHECKMATE: THE KING DIES
The following, I believe, is the culmination of everything I’ve seen or written about in the Middle East over the past 40 years. What follows, though many will refuse to see the obvious, may be the most important intelligence you will read all year.
The game of chess was perfected in the Middle East 1500 years ago and more. It’s a game of strategy, of ruthlessness. To win, you kill your opponent’s king. The word for it, in Persian, Shah-mat, (Checkmate) says it all. “The king dies.” That’s how tyrants win. They kill the opposing king. And that’s what the Middle East still schools us on today.
There is a massive and horrendous war coming in the Middle East, one that will change your life and impact every part of your world, from your job, to your personal security, to your financial well-being. In fact, this war is already underway, a war being fought mostly with proxies at this early stage.
That will not continue. It can’t.
THE BAD GUYS & THE NOT-SO-BAD GUYS
This is a war between Sunni and Shi’a Islam and their sundry allies. On the one hand—the Bad Guys—you have the Islamic Republic of Iran, Russia, Syria, China, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and many local and regional allies. Brutal tyrants all.
On the other—the not-so-Bad Guys—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf Emirates, Israel, Britain, the United States, the Free Syrian Army, and their several really nervous allies.
The war is heating up on multiple fronts, with Vlad Putin’s Russia now moving into Syria en masse, carrying out many hundreds of air strikes on the Free Syrian Army (our allies, by the way), and others, determined (over the short-run) to save Russia’s key ally in the Middle East, the butchering Bashir al-Assad Regime in Syria.
But Vlad Putin’s goals in the region go far beyond just propping up his brutal ally, a tinhorn dictator.
It’s fascinating to watch Vlad Putin’s strategy in dealing with what has always been a tar-baby quagmire that is the Middle East. Of course if you look at Russia’s finances right now, you’d be convinced that Putin should not have his army anywhere, let alone occupying the heart of the Middle East, that this whole affair cannot end well for the Ruskies.
But Putin doesn’t think so. He sees this as a skillful chess move to end-run the Americans and gain a long-term foothold on the Middle East and access to its resources, for fun and profit, of course.
VLAD GOING SHIRTLESS
The man believes that he knows what he’s doing and will not leave until his henchmen in the region are back securely in power and he’s established a powerful position, in alliance with Syria and Iran. To Vlad, you don’t back down no matter what. It’s the manly thing to do—along with lots of bare-chested photo ops, which Putin seems to enjoy (while the rest of us lose our lunch).
The problem with such reckless actions in the Middle East is the unpredictability of the outcome. In fact, if nothing else, the Middle East, since Adam and Eve, has defied logical outcomes. The region today sports powerful contradictory forces—forces that survive in a climate of extremes, held together by tribal loyalties, assassination, and intrigue, fashioned from the root elixir of tyranny and oppression. There’s a reason that little has ever actually been created, invented, or produced in the Middle East. Even the massive oil resources had to be discovered, developed, and secured by the Americans and the Europeans. Severe insecurity and tribal mistrust and vehement hatred tend to stifle innovation, especially by those with the most to lose. Without security you don’t accumulate capital and you don’t re-invest.
So emerging from the Byzantine climate of suspicion and oppression comes the beginnings of a war between the superpowers, instigated by the Islamic Republic, which is determined to use Russia and China and others to accomplish their joint strategic goal—the capture and mastery of Persian Gulf/Greater Middle East black gold—oil and natural gas—the world’s storehouse of wealth and power—in order to spread the Shi’ite Revolution throughout Arabia and the Greater Middle East. What began thirty-five years ago by the Supreme Shi’ite Leader himself, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, is now about to go viral…or so The Bad Guys hope.
Of course Iran, Russia, and China all have their own individual strategic goals in all this, though for the time being, their alliance of convenience is seen by all parties as mutually advantageous.
From the beginning of the 20th Century, the Superpowers, and the Superpower wannabes, have eyed the treasure-trove contained in the Middle East. Russia under the Czars, and later under the Bolsheviks of the Soviet Union, have lusted after the power that control of the energy wealth of the Middle East region would bring. Today this strategic chess game is no longer optional for Vlad Putin and the Ruskies. To a lesser degree it is also a requirement for China to maintain its military and economic power in Asia and the world.
The reasons should be obvious to anyone taking an even superficial look at our rapidly changing world today.
THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT OF OUR TIME
What’s unique is how the battle lines are being drawn, with Sunni-led Saudi Arabia and her allies squaring off against Shi’ite Iran in the most important conflict of our time. And while it’s perhaps a bit difficult to see why Russia and China are getting involved, it should be a no-brainer why the United States should be solidly in the trenches protecting and supporting our allies in the region right now.
But to many, it’s not clear at all.
So, let’s clarify:
PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE RUSSIAN BEAR
Over the past two years and more Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil producers have over-produced oil forcing the price of crude to low levels. This was done, apparently, for two reasons—to attempt to force American and Canadian oil-shale producers to shut down and get out of the market, and secondly, in conjunction with America, put economic pressure on a militarizing Russia, which is one of the world’s largest oil and natural gas producers. In fact, other than weapons, oil and gas are the only things worth buying from Russia.
While this strategy has failed to shut down American oil producers—US oil production continues relatively strong for several reasons—it has had a profound impact on Russia. It fact, the overproduction and subsequent plummeting of world oil prices has devastated the Russian economy. Putin, if you take his words at face value, see these actions as an act of war. His move into the Middle East is, to a large degree, a reaction to that reality. If you pushed him on it, he might try to tell you it’s “purely defensive.”
CHINA’S STRATEGIC VULNERABILITY
China too, for a decade and more, has viewed itself as strategically vulnerable to oil supply shortages and cut-offs, with the nation increasingly a net oil importer. So, for years now China has allied with Iran, seeking a secure and dedicated access point to the vital oil resources China requires to survive.
PRESIDENT OBAMA DRIVEN BY LEFTIST IDEOLOGY, A DANGEROUS PATH FOR AMERICA AND THE WORLD
What’s not happening—which when considering history, it’s awfully hard to figure—is that President Obama, it seems, does not care if America and her allies lose their access to strategically vital sources of oil, likely due to his ideology regarding the “evils” of fossil fuels. At any rate, however, while the US has retreated from the most strategically significant real estate on earth, Russia and China have rushed to fill the gap. Add to that Iran’s desire to capture these strategic Gulf lands and resources for themselves, much of which are populated by Shi’ite Muslims who look to the Ayatollahs of Iran for spiritual and political guidance, and what you’ve got is an open powder keg, with Vlad Putin juggling flares close by.
THE DANGER RUSHING OUR WAY
Another factor which has created levels of pressure unseen in world history, is the fact that our world is now too small for any nation to throw up a wall and remain untouched and isolate from what’s rushing our way. These pressures originating in the Middle East and driven by greedy leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and Teheran, will explode with not only devastating war in the Middle East, but opportunistic spin-offs of a variety of terrorist groups launching suicide teams to attack Americans in the places most vulnerable and unprotected—our schools, malls, theaters, and entertainment resorts. It is coming, primarily because of the pacifist Leftist Ideology of our leaders today. They’ve withdrawn from these key, strategic seams of instability, mostly in the Middle East, and have allowed some of the world’s worst villains and most virulent tyrants to gain a foothold. These are tyrants who will direct, encourage, and fund a variety of attacks on not only America, but also our long-time allies in the Middle East and Europe.
Yes, and it makes me ill with concern and frustration, because all of this was so very foreseeable, and preventable. Still, that’s the past. What matters now is to get ready for what’s coming. For everything I’ve ever seen and written on the Middle East is now coming to a head. It is so amazingly crystal clear, the writing on the wall. It’s as if we can see the chess board before us and the inevitability of what our opponents will now do.
We will be following this with an eagle eye.