Published on November 3rd, 2015 | by John Locke0
KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE MIDDLE EAST
LIVING IN THE CRAZIEST CUL-DE-SAC ON EARTH
I’ve just returned from my fourth exploratory trip to the Middle East and the Gulf States this year. What I’ve found is MIND-BOGGLING.
More importantly, what I’ve found is ESSENTIAL to your future well-being.
The American weak and mostly ineffectual military effort against ISIS is now being used as a recruitment tool by the Jihadis (warriors of the faith) from a variety of terror groups. Considering the numbers we’re now seeing, from Iran to North Africa, their recruiters are breaking all records.
SO, WHAT’S IT ALL MEAN?
During my recent year of Middle East trips, my work has taken me to the offices of the leaders of several key States of the region. What I found has definitely got my attention.
The “honored” Islamic State (ISIS, or to President Obama, “ISIL”) is seen on the critical Arab Street as having stood successfully against the now weakened, even impotent, Americans. (I’m not saying that we are in fact impotent, but that our worst enemies, and now many of our allies, see us as such.)
The longer that ISIS can stand and fight their spokesmen will increasingly make the case, again in the critical Muslim World, that they’ve not only stood head-to-head with the mighty Americans and survived, but survived honorably.
They know they don’t have to win, just be seen as defiantly standing against the Americans.
This is dangerous, and the worst possible message we could send to the Muslim World. And trust me, it scares the daylights out of our allies in the Middle East.
Such a message of defiance inevitably plays oh-so-well in the mosques and suuqs of Islam.
One of the eternal truths of human history: Weakness always creates a challenger. Power vacuums are always filled.
However you measure it, Russia’s strongman Vlad Putin has determined to challenge the US for dominance in the Middle East. This is happening as part of a carefully crafted plan by Putin’s henchmen. More importantly, this is absolutely vital to yours, and America’s, well-being. Russia today is an opportunistic hotel burglar who walks down the corridors checking all the door handles until he can find one open, unprotected, and filled with vulnerable, rich, and passive inhabitants.
That’s the Obama Administration to a tee—the vulnerable chump, not the burglar.
PUTIN ROLLS OBAMA AT WILL
The Russians, on all fronts, are now probing for US weakness. Finding American “doors unlocked and unprotected” we have, in fact, just been rolled politically and strategically.
The greatest danger of the newly formed Russian/Iranian/Syrian Axis is that they’ve laid out a very workable plan and formed a mutual alliance, probably even with ISIS or ISIS-related factions, to coordinate the eventual destruction of the Gulf Arab States, these pro-Western monarchies (Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Oman, and especially Saudi Arabia).
Keep your eyes on this one. It’s coming. ISIS will provide the suicide attackers in the hundreds.
THIS SEEMS CRAZY TO SOME. IT’S NOT. IT’S ENTIRELY LOGICAL
Of course, Iran and Russia’s Putin would view any cooperation with ISIS as a temporary relationship, an alliance of convenience, designed to use these stoner-fanatics just long enough to sufficiently strengthen and consolidate their position.
To the crazed minions of the so-called “Islamic State” such an alliance would allow ISIS to continue expanding their Death-Caliphate in exchange for not attacking Iranian and Syrian targets, but being given full sway and freedom to attack Kurdish targets in Iraq, and increasingly the Gulf Monarchies, including Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, and especially Saudi Arabia.
And, of course, the good ol’ US of A.
THE NEW AXIS OF EVIL
This budding Axis of Evil will likely—perhaps at a distance—also link clandestinely with an oil-starved China, which has mutual fears, and enigmatic goals, that would align nicely. Besides oil access, through a temporary alliance with the New Axis, China could receive backroom assurances from ISIS to rein in China’s own Islamic Uighur radicals, or at least not encourage them to carry out terrorist attacks. The Islamic Uighurs live in Western China and are a thorn in the backside of the Peoples’ Republic.
Yet in all this building, highly flammable powder keg, President Obama appears disinterested, even board. Obviously he DOES NOT want to deal with it. After all, spending scarce resources on foreign threats does not further his own domestic political agenda, which is in effect “the (socialist) transformation of the United States of America,” (in his own words), as we’ve discussed.
This is as serious as it gets. Yet, note that our media almost entirely ignores it.
Don’t you feel abused by our media? I do. Their first responsibility is to be our nation’s watch dogs! Not Obama’s, and our enemies’, lap dogs.
Now is the time to make this our number one foreign policy goal—to neutralize the Iranian Islamic Regime, as well as ISIS, al-Qaeda, and others. If not, the United States, along with her Middle Eastern and European allies, face one of the greatest developing dangers in our history.
KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE MIDDLE EAST
Both Iran and Russia hold mutual, conspiratorial interest in strangling off the Saudi oil industry. Introducing Russian troops and planes in Syria strengthens Iran’s position in the larger region. This is precisely what Iran wants, bolstering the Syrian Assad Regime (Iran’s number one ally) and putting additional pressure on the Americans and their friends the Israelis, but especially the Sunni governments in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
AMERICAN ALLIES, THE GULF ARABS, ARE SQUEEZING THE RUSSIAN BEAR
Cutting the world oil price in half today (being accomplished by the Gulf Arabs) is killing an already struggling, even dying, Russia, and an expansionist Iran. Both Russia and Iran view this as war. The primary culprits of creating this tanking drop in oil prices are the Saudis and the other Gulf Arabs.
Besides weaponry, oil and natural gas are the only commodities worth exporting from a basket-case Russia. However, Russia believes that by indirectly attacking the Gulf Arabs, this in and of itself should firm, even raise, global oil prices, which Putin hopes will help save the collapsing Russian economy.
Putin has, however, a more doable approach: If Putin and Russia can intimidate and threaten the shrinking, even cowering Obama enough, they can then unilaterally “encourage” the American allies the Saudis and Gulf Arabs (in mortal fear of Iran and also ISIS) to cut oil production, thus raising the global oil price. This is the more workable and less risky plan, at least short-term, for Putin’s Russia and for Iran.
But that’s NOT their long-term plan.
BOTTOM LINE: CONTROLLING THE GLOBAL HYDROCARBONS MARKET
More importantly, what we are seeing right now in the Middle East at its very core is a conflict to control, or at least manipulate, the global energy markets. For the Iranians, with their Obama nuclear deal now in-hand, which will lift trade sanctions against Iran, this can only enhance the Iranian oil-profits position. It will also rapidly expand Iranian investment in a variety of dark arenas, including their investment in terror.
The Shi’ite (Persian) Iranians have always hated the Saudi (Arab) Sunni Wahhabis. So they will take any opportunity to weaken these traditional Islamists of the Sunni persuasion. The Iranians see the Russian intrusion into Syria as primarily benefiting Iran, a key part of the ongoing Iranian encirclement of Sunni power and Sunni lands.
The Arabian Eastern Lands (Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman) are rich in oil and gas, but more importantly politically, these are the native lands of ethnic Persian Shi’ites, and a large number of Arab Shi’ites, too, with ties to, and sympathies with—you guessed it—Iran, though the ruling families of these emirate states are all Arab Sunni.
ADVANTAGE—RUSSIA, IRAN, BUT MOST OF ALL, TERROR
Attacks on the Shi’ite Community in these Eastern Provinces recently were designed to sow discord and instability in the Gulf Arab monarchies. Regional instability is seen by ISIS as a sure path to one day accomplishing their goal of an Islamic Oil Empire. Though working to the advantage of Iran and Russia, ISIS has its own objectives, its own game plan, which Iran and Russia fully comprehend and will use to their own benefit over the near-term.
Keep your eyes on Iran, and on ISIS. Both will ratchet up terrorist violence against the Saudi Regime and the Gulf Arabs, hoping to force them to cut back their oil production.
THE VULNERABLY VULNERABLE
The Saudis are now exposed and at risk, especially with the Americans increasingly becoming uncharacteristically passive and benign, even seen to be—amazingly—in retreat! An attack by Iran, likely using some sort of excuse of supposed “provocation” by the Saudis, may be coming. This will happen without any doubt if Iran and Russia come to believe they will not be challenged by the U.S. if they attack the Gulf Arabs.
These are, to many, the most perplexing and bewildering times in world history. Yet, the dangers are so very obvious and easily identified—if you know where to look—and also so easily countered, if America has the political and military will to act with skill.
Sadly, with those who control Washington today, that is NOT the case. Not even close.
But if you are wise, there are things you can do (which we will discuss in future Posts).
In the meantime, keep your eyes on the Middle East…